Papers
Exploring the whole system benefits of domestic demand flexibility in Great Britain’s energy transition. A collaborative working paper, and a summary from Centre for Net Zero.
Overview
Centre for Net Zero is developing data and models to help transform energy systems globally, with a particular focus on improving our “bottom-up” understanding of demand. This will bring to bear evidence from our consumer trials and make use of synthetic smart meter data produced using our generative AI model, Faraday.
Whole-system cost-optimisation models are also useful to understand costs and benefits of different technologies, system designs and decarbonisation pathways. We have adapted the PyPSA-Eur model to explore the role of domestic demand flexibility in the energy transition. This follows the core assumptions in ESO’s Future Energy Scenarios, combined with insights from the Octopus Energy customer dataset.
This 17-zonal model of Great Britain, PyPSA-FES, matches supply and demand hourly throughout the year, up to 2050. It meets demand by shifting loads in time and space through storage options, interconnectors, and dispatching renewable generation based on weather.
In addition to a working paper and summary slides, the model is openly available here.
Key points
The modelling shows there are significant system benefits associated with demand flexibility from domestic heat and transport, while providing insights into its role over time and space. Headline findings are:
- Maximising renewables – domestic demand flexibility can unlock up to ~30 TWh additional renewable generation in 2030, or 7% of total demand, reducing costlier and dirtier fossil fuel generation.
- Optimising grid infrastructure – domestic flexibility ensures networks operate more efficiently: compared to a scenario with no flexibility, reducing distribution capacity needs by ~25% from 2030 and supporting cost-optimal transmission expansion.
- Reducing peak demand – domestic demand flexibility could shift up to ~17 GW, or ~30%, out of peak demand load by 2030.
- System savings – these changes reduce system costs by ~£5 bn every year by 2035, and a total of ~£95 bn over the period 2025-2050.
- EV managed charging has huge potential to match variable supply of renewables, in particular during the early stages of rollout.
- Smart heat pumps are more likely to support reduction of peak demand on cold days; the addition of thermal storage can increase the potential for within-day head flexibility, but this may begin to “compete” with EVs to absorb renewable generation.
