Summary

The global transition to electric vehicles (EVs) has reached a potential tipping point. One in five new cars sold worldwide is electric, and the pace of adoption is accelerating. After years of targeted policy support, falling battery costs, and expanding global supply chains, EVs are poised to enter the steep, exponential phase of the S-curve of technological diffusion. This moment represents both a major opportunity and a significant policy challenge: to ensure the transition is rapid, equitable, and systemically integrated with clean energy networks.

Transformations of this kind are rarely linear. Seemingly small interventions can trigger self-reinforcing feedback loops – falling costs, social diffusion, industrial scale, and technological learning – that propel exponential growth. But the same dynamics can stall if political will or infrastructure fail to keep pace. Whether the rise of EVs continues to accelerate or plateaus now depends on deliberate, coordinated policy action. Successful technology diffusions of the past have not happened in isolation.

Drawing on analysis from Centre for Net Zero, with support from partners at Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) and Oxford University’s Environmental Change Institute, this paper outlines a high-level policy framework for the next phase of EV deployment. It identifies three interlinked priorities: accelerating adoption, integration into clean electricity systems, and ensuring sustainability across supply chains and new mobility systems

Key Recommendations

The paper presents the following overarching priorities for policymakers:

① Mandate and regulate at scale: move beyond incentives to set and enforce clear zero-emission vehicles (ZEV) sales targets and internal combustion engine (ICE) phase-out dates, providing the market certainty needed for industrial investment and consumer uptake.

② Prioritise affordability and access: taxation policy to protect the lower running costs of EVs and, where possible, continue to use targeted subsidies and incentives, but complement with innovative financing tools for mass diffusion – particularly for lower-income and second-hand buyers.

③ Coordinate internationally: support knowledge transfer for both technology and policy, in particular ZEV timelines and trade frameworks in major markets – avoiding the use of protectionist measures purely as a defensive tool to serve incumbents.

④ Invest in public charging infrastructure ahead of demand: Incentivise investment in fast and smart charging networks, with targeted support for underserved areas, those without off-street parking and in rural or disadvantaged communities.

⑤ Enable smart and bidirectional charging: mandate interoperability, support dynamic pricing, and unlock the potential of EVs as flexible, grid-supporting storage assets.

⑥ Develop global battery strategies: support innovation, recycling, and responsible supply chains for critical minerals, and move toward circular material systems.

⑦ Rethink mobility systems: pair electrification with efforts to reduce car dependency through better urban design, public transport, and multi-modal integration.