Skip to content

Insights from the UK’s largest consumer energy flexibility trial

Papers

Analysing the behaviours of households that participated in National Grid ESO's Winter Demand Flexibility Service

Context

With National Grid’s 22/23 Winter Demand Flexibility Service now completed, this analysis presents some key findings, including a closer look at the behaviours of Octopus Energy participants as the majority of the one million household who participated.

Overview

The trial saw over one million households participate and support the grid during times of strain between November 2022 and March 2023. This summary of early analysis explores the behaviours of those who participated, and the impact of price, communications, weather and household type on engagement with the trial. It provides a series of recommendations that will enable the UK to operate domestic flexibility at scale, which is critical to successfully decarbonising our energy system and hitting net zero.

Key findings

  • Demand flexibility can have a significant impact on the grid at all times, but especially at periods of strain on the grid. The trial delivered system-level impacts: 2.92GWh of energy was shifted from peak periods, and 100% of the grid’s requirement when it was under strain was met by consumers. 
  • Households are receptive to changing their energy consumption and can make savings on bills. Altering price signals, notice periods and communication techniques influence the amount of flexibility we can expect from households. 
  • Weather doesn’t deter households from turning down their energy use. Opt-in rates on cold winter days were similar to mild and warm winter days. Greater per-household electricity reduction occurred on the coldest days, on average. 
  • Even with short notice, households are able to provide flexibility. Households can be relied on intraday (i.e within 6 hours notice of an event) if required. There is a trade-off between notice period and price. Customers with low carbon technologies find it easier to respond at shorter notice, but all households are capable of doing so. 
  • Household flexibility is largely manual at present – automation is key to scaling it up in the future. 75% of survey participants said they manually switched off appliances, rather than scheduling them to run at different times. 

Check out the full slide deck on the right hand side. We will be releasing a more detailed academic paper in due course on the Demand Flexibility Service and Octopus Energy’s Saving Sessions.

Related work

General purpose models & tools
Whole-system modelling of future energy scenarios: domestic GB demand flexibility
Exploring the whole system benefits of domestic demand flexibility in Great Britain’s energy transition. A collaborative working paper, and a summary from Centre for Net Zero.
Find out more
General purpose models & tools
Quantifying Demand Flexibility: Towards a Standardised Approach to Baselining
Outlining a potential set of common principles for quantifying demand flexibility, considering the value of different methods and calling for a standardised approach to baselining in future. A collaboration between Centre for Net Zero, Enedis, Enel X and National Grid Electricity Distribution and Octopus Energy.
Find out more
smart meter energy flexibility
Behavioural insights
The Impact of Demand Response on Energy Consumption and Economic Welfare
Estimating the impact of last winter's Demand Flexibility Service (DFS) on energy demand and economic welfare, and measuring the impact of changing notification period and incentive level on demand reduction.
Find out more
General purpose models & tools
The ‘Smart Building Rating’: a digital tool to scale demand flexibility
Centre for Net Zero and Energy Systems Catapult launch a tool to incentivise demand flexibility at scale
Find out more
Behavioural insights
Automating heat pump flexibility: results from a pilot
HeatFlex UK: a collaboration between CNZ and Nesta
Find out more
Behavioural insights
Insights from the UK's largest consumer energy flexibility trial
Analysing the behaviours of households that participated in National Grid ESO's Winter Demand Flexibility Service
Find out more
faraday electricity consumption profile research
General purpose models & tools
Faraday
Modelling the impact of low carbon technology adoption on energy consumption using generative AI.
Find out more
crowdflex research
Behavioural insights
CrowdFlex
Engaging a diversity of households in flexibility events, reducing costs of the whole system and benefiting everyone.
Find out more
baselining research
General purpose models & tools
Baselining
Developing accurate consumption models to unlock a flexible energy system & create new business models.
Find out more